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马航客机失联78小时 11国军舰飞机集结救援

The apparent loss of Malaysia Airlines’ flight MH370 over the South China Sea is all the more shocking for aviation experts because it is so entirely at odds with the previous record of the Boeing 777, widely regarded as one of the most successful commercial aircraft of all time.

马来西亚航空公司(Malaysia Airlines) MH370航班在南中国海上空失去联系，对航空专家来说格外令人震惊，因为波音(Boeing) 777此前有着良好的安全记录——此型飞机被广泛视为有史以来最成功的商用飞机之一。

Some 1,178 of the twin-aisle aircraft have rolled out of Boeing’s main plant near Everett, Washington, since 1995 and they have flown more than 5m flights without suffering a catastrophic loss of the kind that appears to have taken place in the early hours of Saturday.

自1995年以来，已有1178架这种双过道飞机在波音位于华盛顿州埃弗里特(Everett)附近的主要生产厂下线，这些飞机累计执行逾500万航班，从未发生上周六凌晨似乎发生的那种灾难性坠毁。

The 777’s remarkable record is a testament to the improvements in aircraft design stemming from the growing use of computer modelling ahead of first flights. Those advances have largely eliminated the kind of inbuilt structural flaws that bedevilled the de Havilland Comet, the first commercial jet airliner, which suffered several mid-air break-ups because excessive internal stresses led to metal fatigue.

777的骄人记录证明了飞机设计的改进，这得益于在首飞之前越来越多地使用计算机建模。这些进步基本上消除了困扰首款商用喷气客机——哈维兰彗星型客机(de Havilland Comet)的那种内在结构性缺陷。哈维兰彗星型客机曾数次遭遇空中解体，因为过度的内部应力导致金属疲劳。

“The 777 has a near-perfect safety record, with essentially no mechanical malfunctions noted in two decades of flight,” Loren Thompson, an analyst at the Virginia-based Lexington Institute, said.

“777有一个近乎完美的安全记录，在20年的飞行中基本上从未发生值得警惕的机械故障，”总部位于弗吉尼亚州的莱克星顿研究所(Lexington Institute)分析师劳伦?汤普森(Loren Thompson)表示。

The only fatal crash in the plane’s history, at least up to now, was caused by pilot error, Mr Thompson said.

汤普森表示，这种飞机此前唯一一次坠毁事故是由飞行员操作失误所致。

The two most serious previous incidents involving 777s in flight both involved botched landings. In 2008, a British Airways 777 landing at London’s Heathrow airport lost thrust in its engines because of fuel supply problems and crash-landed – without any serious injuries – short of the airport runway.

此前777遭遇的两起最严重飞行事故均涉及着陆问题。 2008年，英国航空(British Airways)的一架777在伦敦希思罗机场着陆时，两个发动机均由于燃料供应问题失去推力，最后在飞抵机场跑道之前迫降。这起事故未造成任何严重受伤。

The only previous passenger fatalities in a 777 incident occurred last year when an Asiana Airlines pilot landed short of the runway at San Francisco International Airport. The crash killed two passengers, while a third was killed after being run over on the ground by an emergency response vehicle.

此前777遭遇的导致乘客死亡的唯一事故发生在去年。韩亚航空(Asiana Airlines)的一名飞行员未能把飞机降落在旧金山国际机场的跑道上。这起空难导致两名乘客丧生，还有一名乘客在地面上被应急车辆碾过导致死亡。

Those two incidents illustrate the most likely causes of a catastrophic failure should it turn out that terrorism has not been a factor – the aircraft’s engines or pilot error.

这两起事故说明，如果恐怖主义的因素被排除，一场空难最有可能的原因是飞机发动机故障或飞行员操作失误。

The most recent similar incident – the loss of an Air France A330 over the Atlantic in 2009 – was eventually attributed to problems caused by ice crystals in the aircraft’s instruments. The pilots’ subsequent efforts to retrieve the situation made it worse, causing the aircraft to enter an irretrievable stall.

最近一起类似事故——法航(Air France)一架空客A330飞机2009年在大西洋上空坠毁——最终被归咎于飞机仪器结冰所造成的问题。飞行员随后采取的纠正努力反而使情况变得更糟糕，导致飞机进入无法摆脱的失速状态。

Some General Electric engines also lost thrust in a number of incidents last year which were attributed to ice build-up at high altitudes in the engine, although none lost thrust completely and all were able to land safely.

由通用电气(General Electric)制造的一些发动机去年在多起事故中失去推力，原因是发动机在高空结冰，尽管没有一架飞机完全失去推力，而且所有飞机均得以安全着陆。

However, because the Malaysian Airlines flight was relatively close to land at the time of its disappearance, it appears less likely that engine problems could bring down the aircraft before the pilots had any chance to report that they were in difficulties.

然而，由于马来西亚航空的航班在消失时相对接近陆地，发动机故障导致坠毁、而飞行员在坠机前来不及报告困难的可能性似乎不大。

The investigators’ focus is consequently likely in the short term to be on recovering from the sea the flight data recorders and other evidence that might explain the mystery. Only then will it be possible to work out how serious a blemish the crash represents on the safety record of an aircraft that had previously been a byword for the reliability of modern aeroplanes.

因此，调查人员短期的焦点很可能是从大海里打捞飞行数据记录器，并收集可能有助于解释这个谜的其他证据。只有到了那时，才有可能判断这起事故给此前堪称现代飞机可靠性代名词的波音777的安全记录带来的污点有多严重。